I'm guessing that your false incoming is a result of your connection devices. I've heard of satellite users having issues with this before.
As for the port test, I don't know. lol
I noticed it about a week or 2 ago. It might also depend on whether LW is open or not. The strange thing is this happens with that port test site & also the Shareaza port test sites. Both gave closed ports for me, but as soon as I opened LW they both gave me opened port results. Odd!
Connecting means you're still trying to establish a stable connection with 3 or 5 Peers (depending on whether you're using Pro or LW Basic.) But you can still downld if connected to only one I believe. Likewise, I've been able to direct connect to someone in similar circumstances, before my incomplete files had even loaded & it said I was disconnected at the bottom right-hand corner.