a couple of thoughts

the guy that created freenet once commented that if you've been making money selling water in the desert and its starts raining you need to get into a new business (selling umbrellas I guess) - its a succinct expression of the issue facing the major music distributors - on the one hand they'd clearly like music compression technologies and p2p to just go away but on the other hand they'd desperately like to make money somehow out of it - so far their attempts to profitably adapt have been underwhelming - some like Sony start manufacturing mp3 players but then reduce their usefulness by ridiculous attempts at linking them to cumbersome formats (i.e. atrac) that limit copy/transfer of files - but but but - the real issue I think is that the very nature of music as a cultural product for market consuption has fundamentaly changed in ways the major comanies have yet to really get a fix on - music is no longer 'special' - we don't put on our best clothes, gather around the radiogram and marvel at a band suddenly being in our lounge - for millions of people music has become 'wallpaper' - inherently disposable, transitory in its appeal, and part of an ever quickening process of cultural consumption - p2p and mp3 files perfectly match this development whereas older more expensive and durable formats do not - if the established companies were serious about 'catching up' instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into the real world they'd radically change the way they operate.

First, they'd accept that copyright as a way to ensure endless profits for themselves (as opposed to artists) is no longer viable.

Second, they'd accept that the longer they whinge on the sidelines the greater the number of 'privately' copied music files there will be available for download via gnutella.

Third, they'd take note of the fact that the reason many people prefered napster to 'purer' p2p systems is that its soooooo much less hassle. If the majors let individuals cheaply subscribe to their catalogues and download high quality files for home burning (with shops also custom making CD's of mixed artists/tracks) - and - switched to releasing quality players (both hardware and software) - they'd have the beginnings of a new business model that people would embrace rather than their current one that is (justifiably) held in contempt. They'd certainly be selling umbrellas rather than water but its either that or get steadily washed away in the flood.